The arab spring is a disappointment or not?

800px-Arab_world_location_map.svgThis year is the fifth anniversary of the beginning of the “Arab spring”. Since 2011 the world saw a historical evolution that begun with hope and it is now in a situation of a major apparently disillusion and a tiny positive believe in the future. Except for Tunisia, all other countries where the “arab spring” occurred are facing great difficulties in the transition to democracy and in fact for some of them that path seems certainly dead. Even Tunisia is not free from a change in the political system that threat all efforts since 2011 in the construction of the democracy. So, saw from outside the “arab spring” is a defeat in the fight for democracy, at least in the major part of the arab world. The transformation that some people even compared to the changes in the eastern Europe in 1989, didn’t have the same end of these ones and in some cases the consequences were even worst. Threatened by islamists, foreigner countries, the army and dictators, the “Arab Spring” seems to be lost and close to a end. Is this meaning a truth failure of that revolution and on the other side the triumph of obscurantism? Well, it’s important to go back in history and see others “springs”. None of them remained with positive results in the moment they were started. I’m referring mainly to the “spring of peoples” in 1848, the “spring of prague” in 1968 and the “marcelist (from the portuguese national leader Marcelo Caetano) spring” from 1969. All them failed to establish democracy and freedom but at same time they had let sources on people that originated a posterior triumph. So, we can say that springs were a immediate victory of winter before a definitive winner spring. Knowing this, the question is: the arab spring is definitively dead or is a pause in a path of something bigger? Time in History has a equilibrated rhythm. Everything happens at the time it must and with the right velocity. Sometimes History is revolutionarily brutal and others times is boring. For example, about the three springs I talked before, was necessary to wait some years before see democracy as the main political system in the countries targeted by those reforms and revolutions. The same will probably happens in the arab world. After the storm, the bonanza! That’s why I believe that the arab spring will at the end be the major movement that will transform the political landscape of the arab world. Maybe is a naive thought and wishes are sometimes bad advisers but I truly believe that at least in some countries, democracy can be a reality. But of course I don’t believe in miracles and for democracy be the majority in the arab world, it’s important that some points become reality: religion must be separated from politics once for all, the army must quit the leadership and let it to civilians, all arab countries must unite against terrorist movements and fight them in a coalition, religious divisions must be forgotten and abandoned, countries and arabs and no-arabs, must quit their geopolitical interests and arab society must pass for some reforms as a important combat against corruption. I’m conscious that to see these things to be truth is very hard because of human nature but I believe they will happen. Maybe not in ten years and must probably only in some centuries, but the path of realism is sure.
Anyway if arabs refuse to reform the society and politics and also if other countries don’t stop make of the middle east a shameful chess game, reality will be very probably a disappointment. Arabs have the choice between the tunisian reformist system (not perfect but the the best in all arab countries) or the many examples of destruction of the arab spring since a country that returned to the situation before the spring revolution (Egypt) until countries dipped on chaos where anarchy rules, where there are partially or no State and where terrorists find a good basis to spread their horrible acts (Syria, Libya, Iraq). I don’t believe that arabs want chaos for their countries! Arab spring is not defeated, is only making a pause.


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